Covid Calculations

October 12, 2020

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Anchor lead: Can we predict the most likely outcomes for people hospitalized with Covid-19? Elizabeth Tracey reports

Using a number of factors assessed when someone comes to the hospital with Covid-19, it is possible to predict the likelihood of outcomes such as needing ICU level care, a study by Brian Garibaldi, a critical care medicine expert at Johns Hopkins, and colleagues has shown. Garibaldi says the study has additional implications.

Garibaldi: The other I think important message from this paper is that for those individuals who develop severe disease or death it can happen very quickly so the median time to developing that severe disease or that outcome was just over a day. What I think that suggests is that you have a very limited opportunity to both have these discussions with patients and their families to understand their preferences and their wishes but also suggests that there may be only a narrow window for us to do something for patients who are at high risk to try to prevent them from progressing to severe disease or death.  :30

Garibaldi hopes clinicians will use the data to help them plan in the event of further surges of Covid-19 at their facilities. At Johns Hopkins, I’m Elizabeth Tracey.

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